their book, Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work, Chip and Dan Heath lay out the four key problems that lead us astray when making decisions:
- Narrow framing: Exploring few options. Seeing issues as a binary (Yes/No.)
- Confirmation bias: Only seeking information that supports your beliefs and discounting what disagrees with them.
- Short-term emotion: Letting a temporary mood affect a longer term choice.
- Overconfidence: Being way too sure you know how things will turn out.
Narrow Framing:
Widen your options: What
would you do if your current options disappeared? How else could you
resolve the issue? Another solution is to look for others who have
solved your problem and imitate them.
Confirmation bias:
Reality test your assumptions:
Consider the alternative. Play devil’s advocate. Better yet, run a
small test to see if your theory really works in a controlled fashion
before you take big steps.
Short-term emotion:
Get some distance: Ask
yourself how you’d feel about this decision 10 minutes from now, 10
months from now and 10 years from now. The long view will help you
realize if you’re too caught in the moment. Another tip is to ask
yourself “What would I tell my best friend to do in this situation?“
Overconfidence:
Prepare to be wrong: Take the time to sit down and really think about what could go wrong to make sure you’re ready for it.
